Age gap on gay marriageJosh Chafetz is unhappy with this Washington Post poll showing that support for gay marriage has dropped 10% since May. But he finds hope (or seems to, anyway) in a CBS poll showing that the younger one is, the more likely one is to support gay marriage. I'm not sure that's good news for gay marriage proponents, for two reasons. One, it's not certain that the numbers will carry over with time. While 18-29 year olds do favor gay marriage 61% to 35%, according to the CBS poll, that doesn't mean that twenty years from now, 38-49 year olds will favor gay marriage by the same margin. People do tend to become more conservative as they get older, and it wouldn't be a surprise if many of those 18-29 year olds switch sides on this issue in twenty years. Two, while a gay marriage proponent can look at the numbers and feel optimism in the future, it almost certainly mean that they will be on the losing side right now. The Post poll shows that 58% of the public oppose civil unions for gays, so the percentage opposing gay marriage is probably even higher. The demographics also come into play too, and it's bad news short term. Since voter participation correlates with age, and older people are more likely to oppose gay marriage, that means that voters oppose gay marriage more than the polls reflect. If a poll shows 60% opposition, opposition by voters is probably 65 or even 70%. With the level of opposition this high, few politicians who favor gay marriage will find it a winning issue. Those on the other side, on the other hand, can oppose gay marriage safely without losing votes. POSTSCRIPT I just noticed that all the polls on gay marriage shown at pollingreport.com asks adults, not voters or likely voters. This is more bad news for gay marriage, since voters tend to be more conservative than the adult population. |
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