Another emerging Republican majority?The Economist says that young people are flocking to the right. Call me unconvinced, because even if it was true, this article fails to make the case. Let's look at the main contentions: Bob Dole lost the 18-29-year-old vote by 19 percentage points; Mr Bush lost by two points.The Republicans made up 17 points between 1996 and 2000 because the popular Clinton got replaced by not-so-popular Gore and Lieberman on the Democratic ticket. As Danny Goldberg argues in How the Left Lost Teen Spirit, Gore and Lieberman's pro-censorship and anti-pop culture views did more to lose the Democratic advantage among the young than anything the Republicans did. And many young people in 2000 voted for Nader, who was absent from the race in 1996. Students have been sceptical about bossy governments for years. Now they are increasingly sceptical about the “Ab Fab” values of the 1960s generation—particularly in regard to casual sex and abortion—and increasingly enthusiastic about America's use of military might.Less casual sex and abortion for young people? It might be true, but it'd be nice if they can cite a poll to back up this claim. As for support of the military, young people have always been the age group most supportive of military force: While polls offer only a snapshot, similar age gaps have existed in past wars. Despite a vocal antiwar movement, young people as a whole were more reluctant to call US military action in Vietnam a mistake than were their elders, Gallup polls from 1966 and 1970 show. Young people were also somewhat more supportive than seniors of the use of US military force against Iraq in 1991.More from the Economist article: A poll by Harvard University's Institute of Politics in April found that three-quarters of students trusted the armed forces “to do the right thing” either all or most of the time. In 1975 the figure was about 20%. Another poll, by the University of California at Los Angeles, found that 45% of freshmen supported an increase in military spending, more than double the figure in 1992.Uh, why would anyone cite a poll from April? Military operations began on 3/19 and the Saddam statue toppled on 4/9. April is possibly the worst time to get a correct indication of pubic opinion on military matters. The rest of the article is mostly anecdotal evidence that sounds nice but has to be put in the context that Democrats still have an overwhelming advantage in this area. (Via Trent Telenko at Winds of Change). |
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