Jane Galt on global warming:
You know what the problem with debates like the debate over global warming is? It's that the journalists writing about it, in general, seem to have absolutely no clue as to how one goes about evaluating scientific claims. They don't understand about levels of confidence, they don't have the faintest clue how models work and how seriously one can take various forms of models, and they seem to be unaware that most scientists come to believe that whatever they are working on is the most pressing, consequential thing happening on the planet.
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While my limited research shows that it is indeed the consensus of the scientific community that global warming is real, there is no consensus about its extent and reach, a distinction that appears entirely lost on the majority of journalists who cover it. In other words, the fact that the scientific community believes it is happening does not mean that they endorse the wild doomsday scenarios promulgated by various environmental groups, and using their "consensus" to support such claims is bad journalism.
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...we are all prone to think that we are right. Scientists advocating aggressive models of warming may be right -- or they may be overconfident. A look at the history of downward revisions in warming projections is educational on that score. According to journalists, the scientists were every bit as certain about projections that were as much as 4 degrees celcius higher, just a short time ago. A little humility about the much-vaunted scientific consensus is in order.
I'd also note that the majority of journalists I know who believe that global warming is settled science believe thusly because -- they have heard it from other journalists. Few of whom were out building climate models in their spare time.
Which is not to say that global warming isn't happening, or that we shouldn't do something about it. But the level of superstition and ignorance surrounding the debate is appalling. People on both sides should hold off on the ridicule and contempt until they're sure that their own understanding of the science is rock solid.
There were several studies contradicting the global warming doomsday scenarios released within the last year that managed to slip under the radar of the media. More on this later.
UPDATE is
here. Hopefully the link works (it's the 8/11 9:08pm post).
