Almost all the pundits seem to think that with so many candidates, someone with only 20-25% of the vote could turn out to be the winner. What they're missing is that as campaigning progresses and polls show who are the favorites, many of the "serious" candidates are going to drop out and endorse the front-runner of his party. When it's obvious to Simon or Huffington or McClintock that they have no chance, thwy'll probably call it quits, and even if they don't, those who supported them initially will switch their allegiances. In the end, it's probably going to come down to Schwarzenegger and Bustamente, and one of them is going to need 50%, or come close to it.
Also, given the rules, Bustamente have a much smaller chance of becoming governor than Schwarzenegger, even though he might have an equal if not greater chance of getting more votes than Schwarzenegger. That's because the voters most likely to support Bustamente are also most likely to vote against the recall. Bustamente needs enough Democrats to give him the plurality, but not too many to save Davis. Right now, he's stuck in nowhere land.
