Market Watch: 8.27.03Each Wednesday, we monitor tradesports.com to see what degenerate gamblers think about upcoming elections. Last week's numbers in parentheses. Bold marks major movements. If you don't understand these numbers you can think of them percents (i.e. bettors think that Cruz Bustamente has a 35.0-35.6 percent chance of winning). stock:high bid-low ask Gray Davis to survive September: 89-95 (88-94) survive December: 21-23 (17-24) survive March: 18-28 (14-19) Recall election winner Cruz Bustamente 35.0-35.6 (31.0-34.5) Arianna Huffington 0-0.5 (0-0.5) Tom McClintock 0.5-1.2 (0.6-2.0) Arnold Schwarzenegger 44.1-48.0 (47.0-49.0) Bill Simon 0-0.4 (1.7-2.3) Peter Ueberroth 1.0-1.6 (0.2-2.0) FIELD 0.1-2.0 (13.8-15.9) RECALL FAILS 19.0-20.0 (17.5-20.0) Democratic primary Hillary Clinton 6-7 (6-9) Dean 31-34 (25-29) Edwards 3-4 (4-5) Gephardt 5-7 (5-7) Kerry 28-30 (28-32) Lieberman 12-13 (14-16) FIELD 15-17 (10-14) Bush reelection 64-65 (65-67) Bush wins Massachusetts 20-25 (22-27) Electoral votes if every state result was rightly predicted: Bush 397, Democrat 141, Dem. states CA 55, CT 7, HI 4, MD 10, MA 12, NJ 15, NY 31, RI 4, VT 3 (Last week same) |
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