The meaning of statisticsNick thinks that the Red Sox's paltry record in games in which they score 4 or fewer runs means they can't win "when the heat is on". The link he provides gives us his chart: Record In Games Where Scoring 4 Runs or Less Wins Losses Percentage Oak 25 41 .379 Sea 21 40 .344 NYY 13 38 .255 Bos 9 35 .205 Let me add these numbers from some bad American League teams: Wins Losses Percentage Oak 25 41 .379 Sea 21 40 .344 Cle 22 61 .265 NYY 13 38 .255 TB 18 52 .247 Bos 9 35 .205 Det 13 78 .143 Tex 5 48 .094 Wow, Boston is behind Tampa Bay. But what's Cleveland doing ahead of New York? Surely it can't mean that they're better than the Yankees under pressure? Let me further add to the chart the rank among these teams in runs scored and earned run average: Wins Losses Percentage Offense ERA Oak 25 41 .379 5 1 Sea 21 40 .344 4 2 Cle 22 61 .265 7 4 NYY 13 38 .255 2 3 TB 18 52 .247 6 6 Bos 9 35 .205 1 5 Det 13 78 .143 8 7 Tex 5 48 .094 3 8 As you can see, the record of a team when scoring four runs or fewer correlates almost perfectly to the quality of a team's pitching. As you go down the chart, the team's ERA gets worse. The conclusion to be drawn: a team's record when it scores four runs or fewer is an indication of the quality of the pitching, not the team's ability to perform under pressure. |
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