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Sunday, September 07, 2003

what am I missing? 


Andrew Sullivan links to some "fascinating new details on how closely linked the war in Iraq is to the war against Al Qaeda" from the Washington Post:
The al Qaeda network is determined to open a new front in Iraq to sustain itself as the vanguard of radical Islamic groups fighting holy war, according to European, American and Arab intelligence sources. The turn toward Iraq was made in February, as U.S. forces were preparing to attack, the sources said. Two seasoned operatives met at a safe house in eastern Iran. One of them was Mohammed Ibrahim Makawi, the military chief of al Qaeda, who is better known as Saif Adel. He welcomed a guest, Abu Musab Zarqawi, who had recently fled Iraq's Kurdish northern region in anticipation of the U.S. targeting of a radical group with which he was affiliated, Arab intelligence sources said. The encounter resulted in the dispatch of Zarqawi to become al Qaeda's man in Iraq, opening a new chapter in the history of the group and a serious threat to American forces there. "The monster is already near you," said one Arab official who is familiar with the intelligence and who spoke on condition that he not be identified by name or nationality. "I don't know if you can kill it." The official added: "Iraq is the new battleground. It is the perfect place. It will be the perfect place."
Sullivan adds "if this pans out, then the Bush administration really will have pulled off something important: taken the war to the enemy, taken it out of the West, and given us a chance for military victory."

That's an important perspective that is largely absent from the public discourse on Iraq. Most of the pundits who cite Iraq as a battle ground against Al Qaeda misunderstand that Iraq is a battleground only because Al Qaeda has arrived after the fact, not before hand. These pundits, like far too many Americans, have taken for granted the idea that there were major ties between Saddam and Al Qaeda before our invasion. We have yet to be presented any evidence to suggest this, and while this may or may not be proven true, it is very clear that Al Qaeda has increased their presence because of the power vaccum created after the demise of Saddam.

Sullivan seems to believe that Iraq was turned into a war zone to lure Al Qaeda in, because this is a war zone where the odds are in our favor. It's an interesting theory, but one which isn't likely to be affirmed by the President in his speech tonight.
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