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Tuesday, October 07, 2003

Bad math 


Jeanne Zelasko, talking about the Cubs during the FOX's introduction of Marlins-Cubs game 1: "whether you believe in miracles, or the law of averages ..."

Many people talk about the "law of averages" without knowing what it is and how it applies. The law of averages concern only random events and applies only over a long period of time. For example, it means that if one flips a coin 10,000 times, odds are it will come out heads about 5,000 times. It DOES NOT mean that if a team is on a long losing streak, they are more likely to win the next game or the next championship. For one thing, teams winning and losing in sports are not random events. For another, winning a championship is a single event, so even if the results of games were random, the law of averages still would not apply.
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