Democrats predict they'll lose 5 Senate seatsRobert Musil takes on the new Democratic meme that the recall win by Arnold is a manifestation of anti-incumbent fever that will bring down George Bush in 2004. He asks, "[a]ssuming the 'anti-incumbency' theme is correct, who is most at risk?", and answers that it is the Democratic California legislature. But I think that this meme is meant to describe voters nationally, not only in California, since Bush wouldn't suffer from anti-incumbent feeling in California because he didn't carry the state in 2000 anyway. So if national voters want to kick the bums out, who might they boot besides Bush? We know that the House seats are gerrymandered so much that even if this meme were true almost all of the incumbents would be safe. But what about the Senate? There are 19 Democrats and 14 Republicans up for reelection in 2004. Following the logic of the meme, we can expect the Democrats to lose another 5 seats, so that the Republicans will have 56 seats. Also, several Republican incumbents are retiring, so the Republican challenger will not suffer from anti-incumbent fever and they might actually keep some of those seats, meaning 56 could be 57, or 58. Result of anti-incumbent fever: advantage, Republicans! (Yes, I'm kidding, but I don't think I need to treat this idiotic meme will any more respect than I have.) |
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