Yawn ... or Hypothetical Democrat strikes again!Big headline for this CNN story: Poll: Majority of voters would not re-elect Bush...and the lead: A poll released Saturday finds that more registered voters want to see President Bush voted out than kept in office in the next election, but his job approval rating has remained constant.Once again, we find Bush trailing Mr. Hypothetical Democrat. Mr. Hypothetical has many good qualities. For example, he agrees with most of the voter and poll answerer's positions on the issues. He has both the experience and the expertise a president would need. He is also tall, good looking, and connects well with voters. In fact, there's only one negative for Mr. Hypothetical Democrat--he's not available. Luckily, CNN remembers to tell us in the last paragraph how Bush might do against real Democrats: Asked about possible matchups between Bush and Clark, Dean, Kerry, Lieberman, and Gephardt, respondents gave Bush a 4 or 5 percent lead in each case.So Bush is trailing Mr. Hypothetical Democrat by 6 points, but leading real Democrats by 4 or 5 points. Assuming that 6% of respondents answered "don't know" in the candidate matchups (the same percentage as those answering don't know in Bush vs. Mr. Hypothetical Democrat), Bush wins 49-45. What it means is that for each Democratic candidate, one out of ten of those who wants Bush out wouldn't vote for the Democrat either. This doesn't sound like the bad news for Bush that CNN makes it out to be. |
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